The next healthcare workforce starts earlier than we think.
Healthcare continually discusses workforce shortages, recruiting future talent, and creating pipelines into the profession. Yet most serious career pathways begin at college age or after 18.
The workforce crisis in numbers.
Public projections and the Marmon Foundation's local inventory show the same picture: healthcare loses most future talent before they ever reach college age.
570K
Projected RN shortfall by 2036
AACOM / AHA projections
−42%
Decline in high-school pre-med interest (2019–2024)
AAMC applicant data
1.9M
Projected new healthcare jobs by 2032
BLS occupational outlook
22%
Average healthcare vacancy rate across settings
AHA workforce survey
Projected national nursing shortfall.
The gap between supply and demand is widening each year through 2036.
Source: AACOM / AHA workforce projections
Declining pre-professional interest.
High-school intent to pursue medicine and nursing has fallen steadily since 2019.
- Pre-med intent
- Nursing intent
Source: AAMC applicant trends, 2019–2024
Healthcare vacancy rates by setting.
Open positions remain unfilled across nearly every care setting, straining existing staff.
Source: AHA healthcare workforce survey, 2024
Where future talent drops off.
The healthcare workforce pipeline loses most potential entrants well before college.
Source: AAMC / AHA pipeline analysis
Figures are drawn from public workforce projections (AACOM, AHA, AAMC, BLS). National projections describe the full healthcare workforce and are estimates that may be revised. The Marmon Foundation funds workforce development and youth pathway initiatives — learn more at marmonfoundation.com.
My central perspective.
01
The missing middle
Healthcare continually discusses workforce shortages, recruiting future talent, and creating pipelines into the profession. Yet most serious career pathways begin at college age or after 18.
02
A defined scope
This work does not advocate removing legitimate safety, licensing, regulatory, labor-law, or organizational age restrictions.
03
The actual goal
The goal is to identify where meaningful, age-appropriate professional pathways already exist—and where additional pathways could responsibly be created.
Important position
This work does not advocate removing legitimate safety, licensing, regulatory, labor-law, or organizational age restrictions.
Instead, the goal is to identify where meaningful, age-appropriate professional pathways already exist—and where additional pathways could responsibly be created.
What this work covers.
The questions I examine sit between basic high-school career exploration and adult employment.
The Marmon Foundation funds this work.
About the Foundation